Much better in cities, allowing the workforce of the future access toīetter education. On the social side, the rural population isĭisproportionately composed of children and elderly people.
It is encouraging that theĭisparity has come down over the past decade, but it is still high, withĬhina would benefit from fully scrapping the internal migration Is low relative to the country’s per capita income and population density.įast-growing Asian economies such as South Korea had urbanization closer toĨ0 percent at this stage of development. Even including rural migrants, China’s urbanization rate Has about one-fifth of the world’s population but only 7 percent of itsĪrable land, making it difficult for 500 million people to live well off Highest levels of rural-urban inequality in the world (see Chart 2). Workers were making 3.14 times as much as those in rural areas-one of the Migration, the ratio of urban to rural income rose steadily. Highest productivity, such as Guangzhou and Shanghai. But controls are still strong in the largest centers with the
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The restrictions on urban registration are gradually being dismantled,Įspecially in smaller cities. With parents working in cities while grandparents maintain the family farm
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When migrants move to cities where they do not have full access to socialīenefits (education, health care, pensions). It is difficult to bring children or parents along If laid off in a downturn, they are expected to return to This migration has been an important source ofĭynamism and productivity growth in the economy. Registered as rural residents under the hukou household That includes more than 200 million urban migrant workers still Point a year, from 20 percent at the beginning of the reform to 60 percent The urban population has been increasing by 1 percentage Family-friendly policiesĬan sustain and enhance female labor force participation.Ĭhina’s 40 years of reform and growth have coincided with steady Many people over 65Ĭhoose to continue to work if they are healthy. Servants can retire at 60, female civil servants at 55. Particular, needs to be reformed and gradually increased: male civil This is especially true in ruralĪlthough challenging, the working-age population decline need not presage a dramatic drop in the labor force,ĭepending on what happens with participation. But many Chinese now feel the need to strengthen the healthĬare system and resource it adequately. Huge ad hoc mobilization that shifted scarce resources to where they were The pandemic was brought under control with a The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed both the strengths and weaknesses ofĬhina’s health care system. It makes humane and economic sense to socializeĬosts that previously were privately borne. But, with smaller families, many elders could end up Traditionally, the elderly are caredįor by their children.
Of the elderly will require devoting more resources to health care, This population aging is both a social and an economic issue. The only working-age bracket that will increase
Triple to about 150 million people, surpassing their peers in the United The over-65 cohort will more than double to 400 million people by 2049.Įspecially striking is that the “old-old,” 85 and over, will more than The elderly population isĮxpected to increase dramatically in the next few decades (see Chart 1). Population has already started to decline. Even some increase in fertility would notĬhina’s population may have already peaked. China is like many other densely populated AsianĬountries, with high housing and education costs, where many couples choose Have been helped along by the one-child policy, but relaxing it did not Total fertility has dropped to 1.7īirths per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1. Unpredictable events between now and 2049. The COVID-19 pandemic has been a reminder that there will be many Our book, China 2049,Įxamines the policies that can help the country achieve this ambitious Furthermore, China’s external economic relations have become contentious with a number of major partners, resulting in growing trade and Underdeveloped financial system, insufficient innovation, and reliance onĬarbon-based energy sources. Given its success since the beginning ofĮconomic reform in 1978, this kind of transformation is certainly possible.Ĭhina faces serious domestic challenges such as an aging population, a rural-urban divide, an In 2012 the Chinese government set a long-term goal: build China into aįully developed and prosperous country by 2049, 100 years after theįounding of the People’s Republic. China’s long-term success will depend primarily on addressing its internal challenges
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